Cross-strait relations have had some signs of easing in the early years, but tensions have become increasingly strong in recent years, especially in 2024 and 2025, with frequent military exercises and diplomatic frictions.

Many people think that if there is a fight in the Taiwan Strait, it is an internal matter in China, but the actual situation is far from that simple.

The scope of this potential conflict is very large, and at least 10 countries may be involved, forming a regional or even global chaos, let's talk about them one by one.

If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will definitely be the first to intervene.

The reason why the United States did this is to maintain its position in the Asia-Pacific region and prevent China from increasing its influence through reunification. Second, the United States has long been prepared for military preparations.

In recent years, the U.S. military in Japan has been strengthening its deployment, and the Guam base is also upgrading its weapons, and the Seventh Fleet may be transferred from the Western Pacific to deal with it.

In addition, the United States also has economic plans.

Taiwan's semiconductor industry is critical in the world, so the United States must protect this "treasure land" to ensure that it can get enough key chips and avoid being stuck.

In addition to the United States, among the countries that may be involved, the positions and actions of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are also worthy of attention.

As we all know, Japan is particularly concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, especially after Sanae Takaichi came to power, not only shouted "if there is something wrong with Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan", but also repeatedly hinted that it would intervene by force.

The reason why Japan did this was not only to "curry" the United States, but also because of the energy problem.

You know, most of Japan's imported energy transportation routes have to pass through the Taiwan Strait, which is its "maritime lifeline", so it must not be ignored.

In addition, Japan has long signed a military cooperation agreement with the United States, and if a conflict breaks out, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is likely to cooperate with the US military and even directly participate.

Unlike Japan's active pandering, South Korea's situation is more passive.

On the one hand, there are many US troops stationed in South Korea, and they are also economically closely connected with the United States, so they cannot escape the influence of the United States and act without authorization.

On the other hand, under pressure from the United States, South Korea may have to provide logistical support, such as sending supplies to the U.S. military and opening ports.

Although it can cooperate better with the United States, South Korea also has its own concerns.

South Korea's northern neighbor, North Korea, has always been a headache. If South Korea is distracted from the Taiwan Strait, its domestic security may be affected.

But even so, in front of the United States, it is basically impossible for it to stay out of the matter.

As the Philippines, which is separated from Taiwan by the Bass Strait, its geographical location is even more critical.

Moreover, in recent years, the Philippines has also opened several military bases to the US military. In the event of an incident, these bases will become a "springboard" for the US military to move south, allowing the US military to quickly mobilize troops.

In addition to the key location, the Philippines has been making continuous moves around the Taiwan Strait recently in order to "cater" to the United States:

In April 2025, the Philippines and the United States will hold a "shoulder to shoulder" military exercise.

During the military exercise, they deployed anti-ship missile systems in northern Luzon and unveiled the "Typhon" missile capable of hitting 1,800 kilometers, which is clearly blocking the Bashi Strait during the exercise.

Moreover, three of the nine U.S. military bases it has opened are less than 200 kilometers away from Taiwan on Luzon Island.

What's even more excessive is that the Philippine defense minister declared that he would share intelligence with Taiwan, and also matched Taiwan to pay for the upgrade of these bases, which obviously wants to completely follow the rhythm of the United States, and once the war is fought, it will definitely participate.

Of course, in addition to the above-mentioned countries, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and India are also likely to intervene in the war.

Although they are not as close to the core of the conflict as Japan and the Philippines, they are also preparing according to the rhythm, but the way they intervene is different from the role they can actually play.

The UK has long wanted to brush up its presence in the Taiwan Strait, sending aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait in 2021, and even planning to send ships to cruise again by 2025.

But everyone can see that Britain is too far away from the Taiwan Strait, and its ability to project troops from a long distance cannot keep up at all, and even if it really sends warships, it cannot provide much practical support.

In the final analysis, Britain just wants to make a gesture that not only shows its loyalty to the United States, but also makes people feel that it still has a say in the Asia-Pacific region.

Compared with Britain's simple statement, Australia's actions in military power are significantly more.

In 2024, Australia directly announced that it would expand its military and focus on strengthening its naval power. This is called military expansion, but in fact it is to better cooperate with US operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Because, as a member of the "Five Eyes Alliance", Australia has always kept up with the pace of the United States.

If a conflict breaks out, it will most likely provide reconnaissance intelligence to the U.S. military, such as monitoring maritime movements, transmitting information, and may even send its own warships to act with the U.S. military as a "helper" for the U.S. military in the southern hemisphere.

Canada's participation is relatively "limited".

In 2023, although Canada has sent warships through the Taiwan Strait twice, its own military strength is not strong, and at the critical moment, it can provide very little actual support.

It is similar to the United Kingdom, and it is more of a slogan and position following the United States, which can be regarded as a "gathering numbers" type of participation. But if you really want to move it, it doesn't have much confidence at all.

After talking about these countries, let's take a look at India, India's mind is more complicated.

India is likely to take advantage of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait to make small moves on the Sino-Indian border, such as increasing troop deployment and conducting military exercises, to distract China.

More importantly, the Strait of Malacca is an important channel for China's oil imports, and India may try to interfere here and affect China's energy supply.

After all, India has always wanted to echo the US "Indo-Pacific strategy".

Taking this opportunity, India is expanding its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, which can not only "help" the United States, but also benefit itself, killing two birds with one stone.

In addition to the four countries of Britain, Australia, Canada and India, once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, there are several potential disruptors, and their role cannot be ignored.

Among these potential disruptors, Vietnam is the most critical.

Vietnam cares most about its interests in the South China Sea, and if the war in the Taiwan Strait accidentally affects the waters around the South China Sea, it will definitely not be able to sit still.

However, Vietnam does not want to directly side with China and the United States and offend either side, but it is afraid that its interests in oil and gas development and fisheries in the South China Sea will be damaged.

Therefore, Vietnam will most likely hold a wait-and-see attitude, keep an eye on the changes in the situation, and wait for the right opportunity to act quietly.

As China's big neighbor, Russia is likely to remain neutral. However, considering its cooperative relationship with China, it may provide some logistical assistance, such as ammunition and fuel.

But Russia will never send troops to directly participate in the war, after all, it still has the situation in Ukraine to deal with, and it does not want to open up new battlefields.

As an oil power, Iran is not having a good time:

If the conflict in the Taiwan Strait interferes with the Indian Ocean route, Iran's oil cannot be transported, global oil supply will also be tight, and oil prices will inevitably skyrocket.

Therefore, Iran will take the initiative to guard its oil channels, such as sending warships to patrol. This seems to be protecting its own interests, but in fact it is also indirectly involved in a global chain reaction.

It is worth being vigilant that once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, in the face of the intervention of so many countries and complex global impacts, China has to take the path of "comprehensive response":

On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen coastal defense forces and build a strong military barrier so that external forces do not dare to provoke easily. On the other hand, it is necessary to explain to neighboring countries through diplomatic communication that the Taiwan Strait issue is China's internal affairs and strive for more understanding.

At the same time, China should also accelerate domestic chip research and development, open up more oil transportation channels, and ensure the supply of key materials, so as to maintain national sovereignty and stabilize regional stability.

Although so much has been analyzed, in fact, China has never been willing to meet with Taiwan compatriots. After all, the two sides of the strait are connected by blood and shed the same blood, and they are a family.

Today, we only hope that the people of Taiwan will wake up as soon as possible, see the truth of the disturbance caused by external forces, understand that reunification is the only right way for both sides of the strait, and return to the embrace of the motherland as soon as possible.