The situation between China and Japan has changed suddenly, where will the tens of thousands of Japanese in Shanghai go? China's position is clear and the answer is already there
Sino-Japanese relations are not good now, this is a matter on the table.
It is easy to mistakenly think that Sino-Japanese relations have become tense to the point of "turning their faces at any time", some people shouting to boycott Japanese companies, and Japan has issued some "evacuation reminders", making it seem as if the next passenger ship is about to pick up people for evacuation.
But if you walk into Shanghai's Changning District at this moment, especially in Gubei and Hongqiao, the areas with the highest density of Japanese, you will feel a very absurd sense of separation - the outside is turbulent, but the inside is like being covered with an invisible protective shell, and it is abnormally calm.
These Japanese living here are not here for tourism, nor are they temporary expatriates for short-term work, but people who have been rooted for many years, they live like an "extension of Tokyo", but this "Tokyo district" has moved to Shanghai, into those high-end communities in Gubei, the street signs are in Japanese, the clinic is a Japanese doctor, and the format of the medical bill is the same as in Tokyo.
If you want to eat the taste of your hometown, there is a whole row of miso, natto, and seasonings in the community supermarket, all of which are air-freighted from Japan, and even many properties in the community can speak fluent Japanese, and the service is more proficient than the local dialect.
All this is not accidental, but determined by the management culture of Japanese companies, in order to take care of expatriates meticulously, Japanese companies are accustomed to "packaging" all the lives of employees, renting houses, children going to school, buying groceries, seeing a doctor, moving...... Companies have ready-made processes to completely "wrap" people in a stable circle.
Over time, they didn't need to learn Chinese at all, or even really contact the local society, and a friend who had been expatriate for ten years said that his wife had been in Shanghai for a few years, and she didn't even bother to learn "thank you", because every step of life was properly handled by Japanese companies.
This extreme convenience brings not exclusion, but a degradation, layer after layer of comfort that allows them to huddle in a small circle of two kilometers square and live as if in a greenhouse.
The news outside is turned upside down, but for them, it is a fixed safety bubble that will not collapse easily, however, just living comfortably is not enough to explain why they do not leave in the face of political tensions.
Many people from the outside world think that Japanese people are reluctant to leave Shanghai because they are reluctant to have good living conditions, but what really nails them here is a reality that is more difficult to shake than life - career path, income, supply chain location, family costs, these factors add up, will make "returning to China" a costly decision that will even make life collapse.
Shanghai is still one of the largest overseas business nodes for Japan, and Japan's trade dependence on China is still huge, from auto parts, semiconductor materials to various manufacturing supply chains, Shanghai is one of the most important cogs in Japan's economic network, and these tens of thousands of Japanese are the most critical "lubricant" stuck in the gears.
They understand the cumbersome process of the Japanese headquarters, and also understand the flexible approach of the Chinese market, which is an irreplaceable middle layer, and if it is withdrawn, there will be a large fault in this multinational supply chain, and it will be difficult for them to find an alternative position.
For individuals, returning to Japan almost means a career collapse, because in Japan's large corporate system, a long-term expatriate is equivalent to a "derailer", and the position of the headquarters has long been replaced during the expatriation, and there is no suitable position after returning, and the promotion path is cut off.
Coupled with the high cost of living in Japan, the pressure on children's education is even greater, and an expatriate in his forties may face the reality of "being abandoned by the system in middle age" after returning to China, so they are not nostalgic for the prosperity of Shanghai, but there is no way to retreat, and worse, they are also psychologically squeezed.
On the one hand, they are in Shanghai, enjoying real fireworks, good security, and community stability every day, but on the other hand, the information they obtain mainly comes from the Japanese media, which has amplified the "China danger theory" at every turn over the years, and relatives at home call from time to time to urge them to "return to China quickly".
This leads to a strange phenomenon - even though you are in a safe city, you are often overwhelmed by the information panic created thousands of kilometers away.
In such an awkward mezzanine, they not only rely on the stable life of Shanghai, but also fear the pressure of public opinion in Japan, and their hearts are like a string all year round, and it is this complex psychological state that makes them like "half exiles" pushed around by the times, but in addition to their own choices, there is another dimension that is equally important - the attitude of Shanghai itself.
If the Japanese stay in Shanghai because they "have to", then Shanghai can let them "stay" because of the stability and tolerance shown by the city, no matter how fiercely the Internet shouts, the management logic in reality has never followed the emotions.
For foreign residents who operate in accordance with the law and live a normal life, Shanghai has always maintained a clear and stable policy bottom line: visas are still issued, medical care is still used, educational resources are still open, and there is no "differentiated treatment" or emotional administrative measures.
In other words, Shanghai and the Internet are not the same world, and the governance of the city adheres to the principle of "looking at behavior rather than nationality", not engaging in collective anger, and not encouraging the spread of extreme emotions.
Except for a few extreme cases, there has never been a systematic xenophobic action in Shanghai, nor has there been an incident that made Japanese people in China feel that they had to run away.
The stability, convenience of life, governance efficiency, and economic opportunities brought by the huge market are things they really dare not give up easily, even if they are not really psychologically integrated into Shanghai, they may be prejudiced against Chinese politics, but as long as the market vitality is still there, as long as the urban order is predictable, they will not be able to get out.
For most Japanese families, the most realistic option is to continue to drag in the "closed bubble", wait for their children to finish school, or wait for themselves to retire, and then face the road back to Tokyo.
Therefore, the reason for their stay in Shanghai is not emotion, but a chain tied to interests, costs, living conditions and workplace structure.