（Nicholas Stern）

In November, the small Brazilian town of Belém on the Amazon River was a hub for officials, scientists, and policymakers from the global climate community, including Nicholas Stern . The 79-year-old "father of climate change economics" was clearly unaccustomed to the hot and humid tropical rainforest climate, having to remove his suit jacket and slowly move through the poorly air-conditioned conference hall, busy with various arrangements.

This is his twentieth time attending the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) , also known as the United Nations Climate Conference.

（Stern Review）

In October 2006, ahead of the 12th Conference of the Parties (COP12) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Nairobi, Kenya, the United Kingdom released the famous Stern Review.

The 700-page report, compiled under the direction of Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank and then head of the UK government's economic affairs department, comprehensively analyzed the impacts of climate change and its economic costs, defining it as "the worst market failure in history" and calling on the international community to take immediate action. [1]

Stern's most direct conclusion is: "If we do not take action, the overall cost and risks of climate change will be equivalent to a loss of at least 5% of global GDP each year."

（William Nordhaus）

The Stern Report is a landmark in the field of climate economics. Even though it was criticized by scholars such as William Nordhaus , a professor at Yale University and the 2018 Nobel laureate in economics, for using a lower discount rate (giving future generations a higher weight than the current generation) , it still had a profound impact on climate governance policies in many countries. [2]

（IHLEG）

（UNFCCC）

At this global climate conference, one of his tasks is to co-chair the Independent High-Level Panel of Experts on Climate Finance (IHLEG) and release the organization's fourth report. The IHLEG, established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) , aims to provide policy options and recommendations through its reports to achieve climate finance goals.

（UK Pavilion）

When “the intellectuals” first met him at the UK Pavilion at COP30, Stern was on another mission: introducing his new book, “The Growth Story for the 21st Century: The Economics and Opportunities for Climate Action”, which was launched on November 5. [3]

Stern described "The Growth Story" as a 2.0 version of "The Stern Report" in many ways, with its core argument being that investments and innovations made to address the climate and biodiversity crises will give rise to a more attractive new growth model.

Growth is driven by six key factors, including cost reductions and experience-based innovation, the scale effect of new technologies, improved resource utilization efficiency, enhanced system productivity, improved health conditions, and increased investment as a percentage of revenue.

（Philippe Aghion）

Compared to mainstream economic research, The Growth Story is more like a policy initiative supported by a large amount of literature. For example, the driving mechanism of this growth is based on the research on "creative destruction" by Philippe Aghion, the 2025 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, and others. [4]

Despite her advanced age, Stern still plays a key role in many professional teams and influences policy direction to some extent. At this year's COP30, IHLEG's fourth report outlined a detailed roadmap for the $1.3 trillion climate finance target achieved at COP29. [5]

IHLEG believes that by 2035, emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, will need $3.2 trillion in annual investment, with 60% coming from domestic investment and 40% from external investment. This means the Global South will become a source of funding, balancing economic development and climate action, rather than simply receiving aid from developed countries.

“The investments related to climate action now are actually development investments,” Stern told The Intellectual. After several email exchanges, The Intellectual was able to have a brief conversation with Stern at Cape Brazil at COP30 on November 16.

Stern frequently visits China and has repeatedly praised its achievements in green innovation. In his speech introducing "The Growth Story," he stated that China has led the latest industrial revolution. In the book, he defines the systemic transformation driven by multiple technologies, including energy transition, digitalization, AI, and biotechnology and materials science, and aimed at sustainable growth, as the "Sixth Industrial Revolution."

He also pointed out that China will play a key role in climate finance by supporting investments in other developing countries and emerging economies through its development finance institutions, promoting development, providing funding, and being able to exert pressure on multilateral development banks.

Intellectual: How many UN Climate Change Conferences (COP) have you attended?

Stern: I have attended all of the COPs since 2006, and this is my 20th time.

Intellectuals: What are your overall impressions of this year's COP?

（Implementation）

Stern: I think this year’s COP is very positive, with a strong focus on “ implementation ”.

Last week, the "Open Carbon Emissions Trading Market Alliance" was established, aiming to bring carbon markets around the world together, learn from each other, and achieve a certain degree of coordination. I think this is a very important concept. Of course, the two largest players in the global carbon market, China and the European Union, are deeply involved.

（Tropical Forests Forever Facility）

Another example is the Tropical Forests Forever Facility . Its goal is to establish a fund that generates income, and then use that income to protect forests.

These are two very important examples. Of course, there is also much discussion about Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) . NDCs are essentially national development plans that include content on development and economic growth, particularly how to reduce related emissions, as well as targets for adaptation, resilience, and natural capital.

China's NDC (National Discharge Control) plan aims to reduce emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035, with a goal of doing even more. I believe China's emissions peaked around 2025, although this hasn't been officially announced. However, most experts, both domestically and internationally, who study this issue, believe the peak is now, or even possible in 2024. Therefore, China will have about 10 years to reduce emissions. Personally, I think China's emission reduction will far exceed 10%.

The fourth example is the extensive discussion on climate finance, including financing for the private sector, energy transition, adaptation, resilience, and natural capital. I believe this discussion is now more focused on development finance, which is the right direction. How do we secure the necessary financing and investment for cities? How do we obtain investment to upgrade power systems and land-use systems? These are essentially development issues. I think this (at COP30) represents a very important development.

China will be able to play a key role in this process, providing financial support for investments from other developing countries and emerging economies through its development finance institutions, bringing development and financing capabilities, and also giving multilateral development banks greater impetus and pressure in terms of ideas and actions, prompting them to further increase their role.

These examples may not necessarily be reflected in the final text of COP30. More importantly, it's about people from all sides coming together to discuss what they can do, how to support each other, and how to learn from one another. I now believe that this is the key story of each COP (Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) , not just the final agreement text.

The Paris Agreement is an extremely important agreement, and we are still working hard to uphold and implement it.

Intellectuals: You recently published a new book, which you also shared yesterday. Overall, how do you think emissions reduction efforts can promote economic growth?

（The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action）

Stern: My new book is titled *The Growth Story of the 21st Century*, with the subtitle " The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action." It is published by the London School of Economics Press and is open and freely available.

The title itself conveys the core message: all the initiatives that must be pursued to improve climate action are essentially investments in growth, including emissions reduction, enhancing infrastructure resilience, and improving daily life.

The new growth is far superior to the growth of the past. The past growth model was "dirty" and destructive, with numerous byproducts, including air pollution, loss of biodiversity, and escalating climate risks.

Today, we can invest in renewable energy, which is already cheaper than fossil fuels. We can significantly improve public transportation, making cities more accessible, with cleaner air, and more productive. Buses and cars should be electrified; we already know they are cheaper, cleaner, easier to maintain, and better overall.

（Adaptation）

Therefore, investments related to climate action today are essentially development investments. We should view this as a path to "sustainable development," which also includes adaptation . The returns on adaptation are very high; if I can ensure that roads won't be washed away by floods and that houses can withstand strong winds, these are good investments that promote economic growth.

This is essentially the growth story I discussed in the book. If I invest in efficiency improvements, especially energy efficiency, it benefits not only the climate but also economic growth. Higher efficiency leads to higher productivity, and thus, higher growth.

But to achieve all this, a lot of investment is needed, and it is necessary to figure out the direction of investment, as well as how to create the environment needed for reinvestment at the micro and macro levels, and how to support it through incentive and financing mechanisms.

At the micro level, this includes carbon pricing, loan systems for managing risk and reducing financing costs, and incentives for innovation and R&D; at the macro level, it includes allowing investment in emerging economies and other large countries to increase by three, four, or even five percentage points.

Intellectuals: Some countries, including China, have recognized that the clean energy industry can become a new engine for economic growth. Could this trigger tensions or competition, hindering international technological cooperation?

（Dislocation）

Stern: The emergence of new technologies does indeed bring about a certain " dislocation ." When automobiles appeared, the livelihoods of horse handlers were affected. With the arrival of these new technologies, it's an era of development, exploration, scaling up, and cost reduction. But this competition is healthy competition; it leads to new products and lower costs—it's positive competition.

At the same time, you must manage this "misalignment." For example, you need to help coal miners transition to new industries and find new jobs. This means training new skills, building local infrastructure, and sometimes even local universities. But that's the story of adaptation.

Intellectuals : Besides solar, wind, and electric vehicles, what other technologies do you think are very promising and could drive economic growth? For example, nuclear energy, which we haven't discussed yet.

Stern: Yes, I think nuclear energy should be a part of it. Currently, building nuclear power plants is time-consuming and costly, but it's an area where I hope to see progress, and I believe China will play a significant role in nuclear energy development—at least I hope so.

I believe artificial intelligence will become extremely important because many problems boil down to "making systems run better." In China, you have a vast amount of power generation capacity, but it's not being utilized to its fullest potential. To make the power grid function better, we need to invest in it and operate it more effectively, and artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in this. In these areas, you will see a host of technological breakthroughs in system management and optimized operation.

I believe green steel will also see accelerated development, especially after green hydrogen becomes cheaper due to cheaper electricity. This is just one example; I believe other areas will also see very promising technological advancements.