If we take a closer look at the current situation in Japan today, you will find an obvious reality: Japan's biggest weakness today is not the number of warships or aircraft, but the supply line. What does it mean? With Japan's resource strength, Japan does not have much oil at all, cannot dig iron ore on a large scale, and does not have enough natural gas.

In order to write this article, I specifically looked at the official data on Japan's energy mix.

The data shows that Japan's energy system is like a shelf in the air, and the support points are all abroad. In other words, as long as the shipping link is stuck, there is no need for any conflict at all. As long as the international situation changes slightly, Japan's entire industrial system will collapse.

We can do this deduction: if something happens in Malacca one day, or the Middle East oil route is affected, Japan does not have to wait for "wartime" to come, as long as the transportation line is paralyzed for a week, domestic oil refineries, steel plants, and chemical plants will be shut down. This is not as simple as "affecting production capacity", this is complete paralysis.

There is also the manufacturing industry, which Japan was once proud of, in fact, it is a strong foreign and middle cadre. Thirty years ago, they were still emphasizing local manufacturing, but now the core production line is largely overseas: Southeast Asia, China, Mexico. Most of the retained in Japan are R&D and some high-end links. Ordinary people still see the brand "Made in Japan", but if you really look it up, you will find that most of the screws, weldments, and basic parts under this brand are finished in other countries.

What does this mean? It means that a geopolitical conflict does not need to reach the Japanese mainland, as long as it breaks through a few external chains, Japan cannot even make up for its local production capacity.

We can imagine a scenario that could happen: parts in Southeast Asia; raw materials in the Middle East; Profits depend on the Chinese market; Transportation depends on the ports of China and Southeast Asia. If the chain is broken, the local factory will definitely not be able to hold on, the equipment will not be repaired, and the supply will be broken.

There is also food self-sufficiency. It is less than 40% in normal years. The staple food is almost bought. Putting a country's security on importing grain is inherently a huge risk. Not to mention, once the shipping is unstable, how long Japan can only hold on is clearly estimated.

The University of Tokyo once deduced that after the maritime blockade, the supermarket shelves in the Japanese metropolitan area were empty in three days, which in our words is "three days to bottom". The national grain cycle lasts for up to three months.

In other words, Japan is in the hands of others on the three lines of food, fuel, and metal. If any country is not in its own hands, even if it has an army and weapons, it cannot be called able to fight for a long time.

Looking at "people", Japan's problems are even more heart-wrenching. It's not that there are no soldiers, but that there is no way to replenish them. Japan now accounts for 30% of the elderly over 65 years old, and the labor force continues to decline. The Self-Defense Forces cannot complete the plan every year, and even the enlistment age has been raised from the past twenties to the past.

Speaking of which, there are still people discussing whether Japan can "last for fourteen years", isn't this a joke?

Four years was the intensity of an all-out war in an industrialized country, and Japan could not even sustain the "fourteen weeks" high-pressure blockade today.

So some people will say, will the United States intervene directly?

This issue is controversial within Japan. American think tanks have given many "ambiguous" answers, and the meaning is very clear: the United States will help, but how much, what rhythm, and whether it can take action in the first time are not certain. Japanese officials are also aware of this, so they continue to emphasize "self-defense capabilities". But the reality is that it can't make up for it.

Only by looking at these layers can you see the truth of the problem. Japan's question today is not "how long it can last", but "what to support". Resources depend on others, food depends on others, industrial chains depend on others, and military chains rely on allies. As long as any of these links are broken, Japan will quickly fall into trouble.