As Japanese Prime Minister Koichi Hamada's provocative remarks on Taiwan continue to escalate, the situation of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces strengthening military deployments on islands near the Taiwan Strait has drawn attention from all sides. According to a report by Japan's "Tokyo News," as early as 2021, the Self-Defense Forces formulated operational plans based on military outposts in the "Southwest Islands" in the event of a "Taiwan Strait incident."

What are these three plans? What impact will they have on the regional situation?

The Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces have three military deployment plans targeting the Taiwan Strait direction, relying on the "Southwest Islands."

One, the "Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade" will execute a lightning strike. As the leading force for island seizure, the "Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade" has been expanded to 3,000 personnel. The Ground Self-Defense Force may utilize the "Hyuga"-class transport ships of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, the "Izumo"-class helicopter carriers, and the "Kashima"-class light aircraft carriers to transport troops and equipment. Using helicopters, Osprey transport aircraft, and air-cushion landing craft for rapid deployment of forces, they aim to quickly seize the islands.

Two, the Ground Self-Defense Force will conduct large-scale amphibious operations. The "Sea Transport Group," primarily built by the Ground Self-Defense Force, will be equipped with 10 transport ships by 2027. Japan also plans to integrate the existing combat forces of the Ground Self-Defense Force and form a new special operations brigade in the fiscal year 2026. The formation of the "Sea Transport Group" is to deploy elite forces and attacking main forces toward the southwest and to continue military transportation and supply.

Three, missile firepower suppression and blockade. The extended-range Type 12 anti-ship missiles and hypersonic missiles equipped with the Ground Self-Defense Force can target the southwest, capable of striking moving maritime targets and island forces, thereby covering the "Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade" and special operations brigade for surprise attacks to seize the islands.

From this perspective, if the Japanese Self-Defense Forces deploy toward the southwest, none of these three plans can win!

First, air superiority cannot be achieved. The F-15 and F-2 of the Air Self-Defense Force are relatively outdated, and the number of F-35A imported from the United States is insufficient, with performance and combat capability that fall short of expectations. Facing advanced twin-engine heavy stealth fighters and even more advanced twin-engine medium stealth fighters, the Air Self-Defense Force is already struggling to protect itself, let alone provide cover for the Maritime Self-Defense Force's troop transport fleets and the "Land-Sea Mobile Brigade."

Second, long-range firepower is no match. Japan's island seizure forces, during their assembly or movement, will face combined strikes or even saturation attacks from long-range rocket launchers, cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles. They are destined to fail the moment they deploy.